If Operation Torch had failed and Rommel's Afrika Korps had advanced into Egypt, pushing the British out of North Africa, the consequences for the Allied war effort would have been severe and far-reaching.
1. Impact on the Suez Canal and Middle East: One of the most critical consequences would have been the loss of control over the Suez Canal, a vital maritime route for the Allies. The canal was essential for maintaining supply lines to India, Australia, and the Far East, as well as for shipping oil from the Middle East. Losing the Suez would have significantly hampered British and Allied access to the Middle East's resources, particularly oil, which was crucial for the war effort. Control of the canal also allowed the Allies to maintain their strategic presence in the region.
2. Axis Access to Middle Eastern Oil: With Rommel's victory in North Africa, the Axis would have gained access to the rich oil fields of the Middle East, particularly in Iran and Iraq. This would have significantly bolstered the Axis war economy, providing critical resources for their military campaigns and potentially altering the balance of power in the war.
3. Increased Pressure on the Soviet Union: A successful Axis advance into Egypt would have freed up German resources to shift toward the Eastern Front. With no need to maintain a front in North Africa, Rommel’s forces could have been redeployed to the Soviet Union, further exacerbating the pressure on the Soviet Red Army, especially at a time when German forces were already deep inside the USSR.
4. Effect on Allied Morale and Strategy: The failure of Operation Torch would have been a significant blow to Allied morale. The loss of North Africa would have forced a reassessment of Allied strategy, likely delaying the planned invasion of Italy and other campaigns in Europe. It would have also prolonged the war in North Africa, requiring more resources and time to expel Axis forces from the region.
In conclusion, had Operation Torch failed and Rommel advanced into Egypt, it would have crippled Allied strategic plans, shifted the balance of power in favor of the Axis, and delayed the overall Allied victory in World War II.