This isn’t a US election forecast. But if the next 94 days resemble the last 12, Donald Trump will lose. I will explain why in a moment. But let me just recap what has been the most extraordinary month in US politics that I have witnessed. It is no less fascinating for the fact that at each point, conventional wisdom has embarrassed itself and then quickly reversed into the opposite consensus. The moral of the story is that what’s generally accepted to be true is often bollocks.
First, on June 27, Joe Biden self-immolated in his CNN debate with Trump. The party line was that it was a “bad night” and Biden would never quit. A key reason for this was that Kamala Harris was such a poor campaigner. Two weeks later Donald Trump was almost assassinated. The view was that Trump’s near miss, and his defiant fist-pumping response, would define the presidential election. The story was all but forgotten within 72 hours. The next week he picked JD Vance as his running mate. It happened on the eve of the Milwaukee convention that was presented as a mere warm-up for what was starting to look like a potential Trump blowout. Trump’s campaign also put it about that the former president’s near-death experience had changed him into a more emollient figure — indeed, a “unity” candidate. Three days after Milwaukee, Biden withdrew. Within about three hours of that, virtually all of Harris’s potential rivals had endorsed her. Twelve days later, she is universally seen as a brilliant campaigner.
So take any predictions, including mine, with a pinch of salt. I have been right at some of these moments (Biden should pull out, Vance was a rash bet, Trump would never change his style) and wrong on others (Harris being a second-rate campaigner).
My view has always coincided with that of Nikki Haley who in January said: “The first party to retire its 80-year-old candidate is going to be the party that wins this election.” The truth of Haley’s forecast has since been reinforced by the inept way that Trump has responded to Harris’s rapid elevation. First, he did not distance himself from Vance’s previous comments about “childless cat ladies”, of which Harris was his prime example. This enrages well over half the population. For those who say Trump did not do his due diligence on Vance, he did. Vance brings money (see my latest column on Trump and the politics of bitcoin) and has pledged not to uphold the constitution, as Mike Pence did on January 6 2021. Trumpworld could not have been expecting Vance to have such a negative reception. He is the first running mate to come out of a convention with a net negative rating — and falling, according to CNN’s Harry Enten.
Second, Trump has gone all-in with the idea that Harris is the “DEI hire” and worse. His campaign wants to focus on Harris’s record as a California liberal — or a “liberal San Francisco extremist”, as surrogates often call her. That line could get some traction, particularly on immigration, where Harris is most vulnerable. But Trump keeps getting in the way of his team’s preferred message. They should have known that would happen when they signed up to work for him.